By: Christel Silver Special to the Boca and Delray newspapers
The National Association of REALTORS®, a 1.3 million member organization, sent a survey to over 50,000 real estate practitioners asking about their expectations for home sales, prices and market conditions in 2019.
Here are some results from around the Nation as of Oct. 2018:
- Properties were typically on the market for 33 days (34 days in Oct. 2017).
- First-time buyers accounted for 31 percent of sales (32 percent in Oct. 2017).
- Cash sales made up 23 percent of sales (20 percent in Oct. 2017).
- Eighteen percent of sellers offered incentives such as providing warranty (8 percent), paying for closing costs (8 percent), and undertaking remodeling (3 percent).
- REALTORS® report “interest rate” and “low inventory” as the major issues affecting transactions in Oct.2018.
I sold three houses in one subdivision in Delray Beach in October, the days on market were 3 days for each house and all buyers were single women, which is a trend seen all around the Nation. We have more independent single woman in higher positions and the rising rents appear to be a huge reason for single women to buy.
Currently, interest rates are at a four-year high. Mortgage rates have not reached 5 percent since 2011. But compared to the interest rates in 1979 at 18.16 percent, we can still consider the rates as being “low”. But this affects some buyers — positively, the buyers are afraid the interest will go up further and they decide to buy now, or negatively, the buyer wants to wait for the interest rates to come down again. It also affects some sellers, as they want to keep their low interest rates and decide not to sell, because the new interest rate would be higher.
Will we have a recession in 2019 or 2020? Recession is unlikely, but an economic downturn may be possible. It is believed that the housing market likely won’t be the cause of an economic downturn but will affect the real estate market. With job losses, the housing market softens — even if the housing market isn’t the main cause. Some parts of the Nation will be affected more than others, especially in areas that have not totally recovered from the last recession. The housing market will depend on the depth, length and severity of the downturn and some parts of the country will feel the impact worse than others. The Barclays Global Economics Weekly reports: “While a downturn is expected to come for the housing market, it could be more of a side-step than falling off a cliff.”
The U.S. economic signals show positive housing market predictions and high consumer confidence. With the change of power in the House of Representative, there is uncertainty as to how this will affect of the economy.
About Christel Silver
Christel Silver is a full time Broker/Owner of Silver International Realty servicing the East Coast of South Florida. In 1985 she was licensed in Maryland and Washington DC as a Realtor and later as a Certified Residential Appraiser and Associate Broker and has been in Florida since 2001. Christel is a Certified International Property Specialist (CIPS), and a certified speaker teaching CIPS classes. Ms. Silver served the Florida Certified Residential Specialist (CRS) Chapter as President, as Regional Vice President helping Chapters to grow, and as a member of the Board of Directors for two years. She served previously as an ambassador. Fifty percent of her business is in the International arena. For more information visit www.silverhouses.com.